AGP Executive Report

Budget Watch: Bangladesh’s FY27 national budget (Tk 9.38 lakh crore) boosts education spending to Tk 1,36,606 crore and raises social protection via a Tk 14,500 crore Family Card push to bring 4.1 million women under the scheme, aiming for a Universal Social ID by 2030; Market & Banking: business groups back capital market reforms and free trade zones but warn borrowing costs, energy shortages and implementation gaps could hurt investment; Bangladesh Bank Governor warns “looters” won’t be allowed to live in peace amid Islami Bank stress and liquidity support plans; Energy Transition: ActionAid and JETnet-BD welcome renewable energy tax incentives, including solar duty/tax exemptions and EV battery manufacturing support; Fiscal Risks: CPD and others call the budget overly ambitious, citing revenue shortfall risks and criticism of “black money” whitening provisions; Trade & Diplomacy: Bangladesh seeks stronger trade and investment ties with China at Kunming expo, while ADB announces a US$4bn crisis package for West Asia-affected countries including Bangladesh; Business Moves: Fresh Super Mart expands with new outlets across Dhaka Metro Rail stations; Policy for Growth: Govt proposes free trade zones to cut supply-chain lead times and reduce customs duties for export-oriented operations; Social & Safety: DNCC plans modern waste management for cleaner Dhaka, and a fire at Khulna City Medical College Hospital evacuated 250 patients; Labour Global: ILO adopts the first gig-economy platform workers convention, relevant for app-based work protections worldwide.

FY27 Budget & Inclusive Growth: Finance Minister Amir Khosru says the Tk 9.38 lakh crore FY27 budget aims to bring every citizen into economic planning, with stabilisation and reforms first, then stronger growth from year three and full recovery by years four and five. Banking Stability & Fraud Crackdown: Bangladesh Bank Governor Mostaqur Rahman assured depositors of troubled banks there will be no difficulty, while warning money launderers won’t “live in peace” as the central bank tracks stolen assets. Power Sector Contract Dispute: Power Minister Tuku said the government is considering legal action over capacity-charge arrears tied to earlier private power agreements. Energy Transition Push: Officials flagged targets including 5,000MW solar by 2030, reviving BAPEX and expanding gas exploration to cut import reliance. Digital ID & Wallets: Bangladesh is advancing a “One Citizen-One ID-One Digital Wallet” plan to link identity, payments and services, positioning digital infrastructure as key to growth. Business Reaction: CPD, BCI and MCCI broadly welcomed the budget’s human development and recovery focus, but stressed implementation and banking/financing risks. Tax Relief for Essentials: The budget proposes cutting source tax on 60 essential commodities and tax concessions for dialysis filters and other medical items, easing costs for low- and middle-income groups. Local Governance: DNCC plans two shifts for cleaners, modern waste equipment and waste-to-energy generation to clean up Dhaka. Trade & Diplomacy: Bangladesh will host a “Trade, Growth & Economic Diplomacy 2026” summit in Dhaka to coordinate policy and investment priorities. Public Health & Regulation: BTCA criticised the budget for bringing nicotine pouches, HTPs and vapes under tax rules, warning it could undermine a tobacco-free Bangladesh.

Budget & Tax Overhaul: Bangladesh’s FY2026-27 national budget (Tk 9.38 lakh crore) puts tax compliance front and centre, with TIN mandatory for most new bank accounts, a phased rise in the tax-free income ceiling to Tk 3.75 lakh (then higher later), and a shift in SIM-card taxation after the proposed withdrawal of the Tk 300 SIM tax. Real Estate “Whitening” Move: The budget also revives a real-estate route to legalise undisclosed money via disclosure of the gap between actual and registered land/apartment values, with specified taxes/penalties. Telecom & Digital Push: Mobile users’ groups and operators welcomed the SIM tax withdrawal, while the government unveiled “One Citizen-One ID-One Digital Wallet” to power digital services and ICT growth. Banking Reform Debate: Former Bangladesh Bank governor Ahsan H Mansur urged immediate Bank Company Act amendments to curb family control, as business bodies warn heavy deficit financing could crowd out private credit. Remittances: Inward remittances jumped 25.83% to $1.203bn in the first 10 days of June, supporting forex stability. Trade/Regional Business: Bangladesh is the theme country at China’s Kunming China-South Asia Expo, aiming to expand exports and investment links. Border Tensions: Reports of India pushing back undocumented Bangladeshis keep fear high in border towns, with Bangladesh-India border talks highlighting illegal crossings and trafficking concerns.

Budget FY27 Launch: Bangladesh unveiled a Tk 9.38tn national budget aiming for 6.5% GDP growth and 7.5% inflation, with spending up 19% and a deficit of Tk 2.43tn (3.6% of GDP). Foreign Borrowing Plan: To plug the gap, the government plans to borrow heavily abroad, with net foreign borrowing nearly doubling versus the revised FY26 figure. Bank Funding Push: It also targets Tk 1.12tn borrowing from banks, while setting aside a Tk 40,000cr bank rescue fund and easing some central bank controls. Business & Tax Moves: Retailers are pulled into the tax net via a small advance income tax at the supply stage, and credit card approvals shift to bank boards instead of Bangladesh Bank pre-approval. Cost of Living & Consumer Relief: The budget cuts taxes/VAT on many essentials and life-saving items, with analysts watching for price swings. Health & Social Protection: Health spending nearly doubles to Tk 69,409cr, alongside a Tk 1.44 lakh cr social safety net allocation. Infrastructure & Transport: A 3,000km expressway plan and Dhaka metro expansion (six MRT lines) anchor the infrastructure drive. Trade & Industry Support: Import duty withdrawal on 51 API raw materials and tax relief for pharma inputs; semiconductor incentives extend until 2031; electronics and air-cargo logistics hubs get policy backing. Energy & Water Tech: An AI groundwater monitoring dashboard and a push for energy security sit alongside plans to manage inflation. Policy Backlash: Jamaat calls the budget “anti-people” and stages protest marches, while business bodies broadly welcome the direction but flag execution and revenue risks. Regional Linkages: PM’s China trip is expected soon, and China-South Asia Expo messaging highlights deeper regional trade and industrial cooperation.

Budget Watch: Bangladesh’s FY27 budget (Tk 9.38 lakh crore) is set to be placed in parliament today, with the BNP-led government expected to push higher spending for pay hikes, election pledges and energy subsidies, while finance minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury also flags a push for recovery amid low growth and inflation. Economic Strategy: The government will unveil a 3R plan—Recovery & Stabilisation, Restoration, and Reconstruction for Acceleration—aiming for 8.5% growth by 2030-31. Growth Snapshot: Provisional data puts FY25 GDP growth at 4.14%, lifting per capita income to $3,020 for the first time. IMF/Financing Support: Bangladesh signed a $250m AIIB loan for economic governance and a $404m World Bank financing package for health and nutrition. Digital Payments Push: Bangladesh Bank launched the nationwide Bangla QR campaign ahead of July 1 rollout. Banking Stability: Bangladesh Bank appointed an observer to Islami Bank to protect depositors amid governance and liquidity turmoil. Trade & Industry: Patenga Container Terminal at Chittagong Port cut vessel waiting time to near zero, while the 20th Bangladesh Denim Expo opens in Dhaka under “Frontline to Future.” Energy Risk: Kaptai hydropower generation faces possible suspension as water levels fall sharply. RMG Signal: RMG exports to the US fell 11.24% in four months, adding pressure for policy support.

Bangladesh Economy Milestone: Bangladesh’s economy crossed the $500bn mark in FY25-26, with GDP growth rising to 4.14% and per capita GNI hitting $3,020 for the first time, though economists warn inflation and stability must stay the priority. Banking Governance: Bangladesh Bank appointed an observer to Islami Bank Bangladesh amid protests and political heat over the bank’s top management, as depositors continue withdrawals and bankers warn the turmoil could spill into the wider financial sector. Budget & Fiscal Strategy: The government plans a bigger foreign-aid push for FY26-27 (target $13.27bn) and is set to introduce new tax measures, including incentives for green industries and digital entrepreneurs, while also adjusting deficit financing toward more borrowing abroad. Development Finance: Bangladesh signed a $250m AIIB budget-support deal for economic management and governance, and the World Bank approved $379m loan plus $25m grant to strengthen health, nutrition and population services. Trade & Industry: Inditex’s regional chief said Bangladesh can become a top apparel sourcing hub if it improves logistics, lead times and value-added output, while ADB hosted a Dhaka seminar to connect businesses with multilateral project opportunities. Energy & Diplomacy: Russia floated the idea of a floating nuclear plant unit for Bangladesh as talks continue on diversifying energy options. Public Health & Environment: Cabinet approved UNICEF-procured vaccines worth Tk 412.71 crore, BJRI won the National Environment Award 2025, and DSCC launched a “City Inspector” pilot to boost cleanliness and dengue prevention.

Budget Watch: Former FBCCI president Mir Nasir Hossain urged a business-friendly FY2026-27 budget, warning energy security and inherited power-sector debt remain the biggest drag on investment. Central Banking & Agriculture: Bangladesh Bank launched a Tk 100b refinancing scheme for agricultural loans with low rates (capped at 8%), collateral-light options for small/marginal and women farmers, and strict rules to protect genuine borrowers. Stimulus for Rural Growth: BB’s Tk 600b stimulus earmarks Tk 100b for agriculture and rural activities, plus funds for northern agri hubs and frozen shrimp/fish exports, targeting about 2.5m jobs. Japan Energy Support: Japan will extend an emergency loan up to $312m (50b yen) with ADB co-financing to strengthen fiscal management and ensure stable energy supply. SME & Start-up Focus: The upcoming budget is set to boost SMEs, start-ups, women entrepreneurs and creative activities, with Tk 400 crore planned for start-up financing and entrepreneurship support. Banking Stability: BB formed a Tk 100b refinancing scheme and also moved to appoint administrators for five struggling NBFIs for liquidation/resolution, with priority repayment for deposits up to Tk 10 lakh. Trade & Industry Relief: Finance minister Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury signalled measures like halving source tax on local cotton purchases and cutting VAT on locally made ACs and refrigerators to ease costs and prices. RMG Pressure: BGMEA plans a “Charter of Policy Support” as garment exports keep sliding, citing LDC-graduation uncertainty and rising regional competition. Geopolitics & Labour: Bangladesh and Russia discussed expanding manpower from nearly 10,000 to 100,000 workers within a year and boosting trade in garments and pharma. Capital Market Reform: Commentaries renewed calls to fix Bangladesh’s capital market financing gap, arguing banks have become the default long-term financier.

Energy Subsidy Shock: Finance Minister Amir Khosru warned West Asia tensions could force extra Tk 42,600 crore in fuel, gas, power and fertiliser subsidies this fiscal year, citing higher import and production costs. Japan Loan for Resilience: Japan confirmed a $312m (about Tk 3,800 crore) ODA loan for economic reforms and stable energy supply, signed via ERD/JICA under the POWER ASIA initiative. Banking Confidence & Reforms: The finance minister told parliament the government is using a structured resolution framework, including deposit protection expansion, to restore trust; meanwhile Islami Bank sought Tk 10,000 crore liquidity support amid deposit withdrawals and political unrest. Capital Market Crackdown: BSEC fined individuals and institutions Tk 14.96bn over stock market irregularities, while DSE shares rallied on budget optimism but foreign investors sold Tk 161cr in May. Port Disruption Risk: Benapole land port cargo unions announced an indefinite strike from June 14, threatening import-export delays. Local Enforcement: Dhaka South warned shops without trade licences will be sealed immediately. Wildlife Action: Forest officials rescued 55 rare animals and arrested two alleged traffickers in separate drives. Digital Telecom Move: Veon proposed a strategic combination with Teletalk and interest in acquiring Nagad.

Bangladesh Bank & SME Finance: BB launched a Tk 50b revolving refinance fund for CMSMEs, with refinance at 4% and end-borrower rates capped at 9%, plus grace periods of 3–6 months to ease working-capital stress. Capital Market Oversight: BB said a key Bank Resolution Act provision on ownership return after bank mergers is “not maintainable,” recommending deletion due to large gaps in recovery prospects. Remittances: Remittance inflows stayed strong, reaching $33.63b in FY25-26 to June 7 (+18.45%), supporting foreign exchange stability. Trade & Export Risk: Commerce minister warned LDC graduation could cost about $17.5b in exports from loss of preferential access, while Bangladesh pushes new trade deals to offset the hit. Labour & Industry: Labour leaders demanded action to stop garment and factory job cuts; separate reports flagged ongoing pressure on workers and factory closures. Water & Health: Gandharbapur plant is set to supply 50 crore litres of treated water to Dhaka daily once operational; dengue admissions rose again with 65 more hospitalised in 24 hours. Labour Migration: Mauritius labour market is set to reopen as both sides fast-track an MoU for recruitment after nearly four years of closure. Regional Security: India’s West Bengal authorities claimed deporting nearly 5,000 Bangladeshis since taking office, while Bangladesh reiterated due process concerns. Rohingya Rescue: Bangladesh Coast Guard rescued 50 people, including 11 Rohingya refugees, from a suspected trafficking boat near Teknaf.

Bangladesh Bank Finance Push: BB rolled out multiple refinance schemes—Tk 10,000cr for green industries and Tk 5,000cr for CMSMEs (lending capped at 9%), plus a Tk 10,000cr revolving fund for agriculture and rural jobs—aimed at boosting investment, production and employment while tightening borrower charges. Capital Market Watch: BSEC lifted floor prices on Beximco and Islami Bank shares, while the DSE snapped a 10-session winning streak as investors booked profits ahead of the budget. Trade & Competition: Commerce Minister said the trade deficit widened to $24.16bn in FY25; meanwhile, the govt plans to strengthen the Competition Commission and consumer protection to curb market dominance. Halal & Export Diversification: Indonesia urged Bangladesh to expand halal trade beyond food into fashion, pharma, healthcare and digital, with a push to join D-8 Halal Expo 2026; Bangladesh also seeks new market access via China-South Asia Expo in Kunming. Banking Governance: BB chief outlined banking reforms (weak-bank management, NPL reduction, digitalisation) and moves to amend the Money Loan Court Act; Standard Chartered Bangladesh CEO Naser Ezaz Bijoy stepped down. Energy Readiness: Power ministry ordered working papers to make the grid safer and smarter for the nuclear era. Industry Updates: Leather sector gets export-focused support plans (bonded warehouse, compliance help), and BD Thai Food signed a deal to boost soft-drink capacity utilisation.

Public Health Watch: Bangladesh is battling a worst-in-years measles outbreak while dengue cases surge again, with DGHS reporting 3,307 infections and 6 deaths so far this year—raising fears of a double strain on hospitals and families. BCB & Sports Development: Newly elected BCB president Tamim Iqbal says his top priority is building a world-class High Performance Centre in Purbachal, aiming for long-term cricket progress. Energy Security: A parliamentary committee’s 12-point plan urges bigger strategic fuel reserves (3 months), diversified import sources, full digital monitoring of the fuel supply chain, and faster LNG/renewables and key pipeline projects. Budget Signals for Business: The upcoming FY27 budget is set to offer tax breaks for renewables, edible-oil production and SMEs, plus possible mandatory TIN for bank accounts. Banking Reform: The information minister says a reform commission will be formed for the banking sector to fix governance weaknesses. Capital Market Momentum: DSE turnover hit Tk 15bn for the first time in nearly two years as optimism grows around BSEC reforms; the new BSEC chief pledges full digitisation and faster IPO processing. Remittance Risk: Bangladesh Bank warns remittance inflows could slow if Middle East tensions disrupt labour migration, with early June inflows down nearly 21% year-on-year. Hydrocarbon Push: Govt plans an onshore oil-and-gas bidding round after 28 years to boost declining domestic gas output. Trade Pressure: Bangladesh’s trade deficit widened again as imports outpaced exports, underlining external-sector strain.

Capital Markets: Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) Chairman Masud Khan vowed an aggressive push to attract “quality” companies, promising a Listed Company Advantage Programme with incentives like a wider tax gap for listed firms, separate tax administration, risk-based assessment, fewer unnecessary audits and faster dispute resolution, while DSE said it will back reforms and digitalisation under the new regulator. Banking & Trade Finance: AB Bank launched the pilot of AI-powered digital lending “AB e-Loan” via its AB Direct app, while Mutual Trust Bank rolled out “MTB Trade X,” an in-house digital portal to submit and track trade requests online. Budget & Fiscal Pressure: Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury is set to present the Tk 9.38 lakh crore FY27 budget on June 11, with experts warning revenue shortfalls and banking stress could dominate funding challenges. Energy & Transport: BERC cut Jet A-1 prices by Tk 15.67 per litre for domestic airlines and $0.10 for international, and an aviation minister ordered 24/7 cargo handling at Shahjalal Airport to clear a backlog. Governance & Media: Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase approved BTV’s direct acquisition of FIFA World Cup 2026 all-media rights for Tk 72.71 crore. Housing Finance: REHAB urged bond-based housing finance and single-digit mortgage rates; Bangladesh Bank said it is working on a bond-based framework for long-term housing loan funding. Health: Dengue prevention drives continue as 107 more patients were hospitalised in 24 hours.

Energy & Subsidies: India raised domestic LPG prices by Rs 29 amid the Iran-linked global energy shock, but government support keeps effective costs far below market-linked levels—PMUY beneficiaries pay about Rs 642 per 14.2-kg cylinder. Power Sector Pressure: Bangladesh’s energy ministry says it will pursue alleged power-sector “oligarchs” behind past irregularities, while BERC data points to rising capacity payments that could squeeze subsidies and push up electricity tariffs. Budget & Parliament: The first budget session of the 13th Jatiya Sangsad begins as Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury prepares FY27 discussions; analysts warn implementation gaps and debt risks. Trade & Compliance: WTO officials say any LDC graduation transition should be used to boost competitiveness and export readiness under WTO rules. Health Crisis: Bangladesh’s measles outbreak is driving families into debt as treatment costs soar; experts also call for dedicated budget lines and stronger drug supply for hypertension control. Diplomacy: Bangladesh’s UNGA presidency is framed as a visibility boost, while Dhaka and Ankara plan deeper strategic ties including annual 2+2 talks. Business & Exports: Fruit exports hit a record $123m in FY26 (July–May), helped by demand from Bangladeshi expats. Security & Governance: Authorities plan border awareness and upgraded surveillance along the India-Bangladesh frontier, and a Dhaka court is set to deliver the verdict in the Ramisa rape-murder case today.

Bangladesh–Türkiye Strategic Push: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan met PM Tarique Rahman in Dhaka and both sides agreed to set up minister-level joint committees on defence and political cooperation, hold annual foreign office consultations and annual 2+2 talks, with focus on Rohingya, climate, trade and investment. Capital Market Watch: The DSEX extended its post-Eid rally to a three-month high as reform hopes lifted sentiment; meanwhile, the new BSEC leadership inherits a market still battling an IPO drought and weak investor confidence. RMG Exports: Bangladesh’s RMG exports fell 3.41% to $35.31bn in July–May FY26, with the EU still the biggest buyer but down year-on-year. Budget & Business Outlook: Policymakers are targeting a $1tn economy by 2034, while a separate push ahead of FY27 calls for better climate-health financing as health allocations have shrunk despite rising risks. Public Health & Cities: DSCC launched a dengue crash programme in high-risk wards after surveys flagged widespread Aedes breeding; DNCC also stressed public awareness and sanitation coordination. Trade & Logistics: A connectivity-focused piece highlights how border delays and frictions raise costs for export-driven Bangladesh. Transport Updates: Metro rail extended late-night MRT services by 20 minutes from Sunday. Border Tensions: BGB thwarted multiple BSF push-in attempts and reported people being stranded at the zero line in Panchagarh for over 36 hours.

Monetary Policy Watch: As Bangladesh Bank prepares its next Monetary Policy Statement, analysts are debating whether to keep the policy rate at 10% or start easing amid an “energy shock” that’s colliding with inflation and weak credit growth. Energy Cost Pressure: Thousands protested in Dhaka against repeated electricity and fuel price hikes, arguing the burden is crushing household budgets. Border Security & Human Movement: BGB foiled multiple BSF “push-in” attempts along the northern border, leaving people stranded near the zero line as both sides faced off. Food & Supply Chain Tech: TCB is reportedly proposing an AI-driven system to track prices and supply of essentials and connect farmers directly with buyers to curb hoarding and manipulation. Industrial Push: The government plans a new BSCIC industrial estate in Pabna, with plot and fee reviews and estate upgrades to ease business costs. Trade & Diplomacy: Bangladesh and Turkey discussed deeper economic cooperation, including textiles, shipbuilding, defence manufacturing, pharma, renewables and ICT, with a Rohingya-focused agenda also on the table. Global Policy Risk: The UN warns AI’s water footprint could soar by 2030, adding a new environmental cost layer to the tech boom.

Bangladesh-Turkiye Trade & Diplomacy: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan is on a two-day visit to Dhaka, saying Ankara is exploring ways to lift bilateral trade from $1.3bn to $2bn and pledging continued support for a “permanent and just” Rohingya solution, including safe, voluntary returns; Bangladesh FM Khalilur Rahman reiterated the “Bangladesh First” doctrine and “friends, not masters” approach. Rohingya Humanitarian Focus: Fidan is expected to inspect Turkish-funded humanitarian projects in Cox’s Bazar, home to over 1m Rohingya refugees. Transport & Safety: A bus fell into the Padma from a pontoon at Daulatdia ferry ghat; a shipping ministry probe committee has been formed to find causes and prevent repeats. Eid Travel Revenue: Jamuna Bridge collected about Tk 29.76 crore toll from nearly 396,000 vehicles during Eid holydays. Agri Trade: Rajshahi litchi trade is eyeing around Tk 56 crore, driven by strong demand for the premium Bombay variety. Capital Markets Watch: Bangladesh’s BSEC leadership overhaul continues, with Masud Khan named chairman and a push for real-time action against manipulation. Energy & Cost Pressure: Power tariff hikes for lifeline/low-use users were rolled back, amid ongoing debate over electricity pricing and inflation impacts. Sports & Business Ties: Brothers Union players boycotted a Dhaka Premier League match over unpaid dues, triggering a walkover—highlighting cashflow stress in sports-linked institutions.