AGP Executive Report

US Forced-Labour Tariffs: The Trump administration has rolled out sweeping Section 301 tariffs on 60 economies, effective 12:01am Friday, with rates of 10% for countries deemed to have forced-labour import bans in place and 12.5% for others; Bangladesh is in the 10% tier, but the move still raises costs and reshuffles sourcing for labour-intensive sectors like apparel. Textile Impact: India’s textile lobby warned the tariff could disadvantage Indian exporters versus rivals that get textile tariff-rate quotas tied to US cotton inputs, potentially diverting orders away from India. Bangladesh Trade Watch: Multiple reports note Bangladesh’s US apparel exposure is high, so even a “lower” 10% duty can matter for competitiveness and intermediate input demand. Energy Milestone: Bangladesh’s Rooppur nuclear plant is moving toward the criticality stage after completing fuel loading and tests, pending BAERA approval. Food Security: A UN-backed update says 26.2% of Bangladeshis faced moderate/severe food insecurity (2023-25) and 38.6% couldn’t afford a healthy diet in 2025, with diet costs rising sharply. Youth Jobs via Tech: Entrepreneur Kawser Ahmed is using IT and digital services to create jobs and tackle youth unemployment through his Amarwap Group and MyAdsBD.

US Tariff Shock for South Asia: The Trump administration is rolling out new Section 301 “forced labour” tariffs on 60 economies, replacing a temporary global 10% levy. Bangladesh Impact: Bangladesh is in the lower 10% bracket, alongside India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, as the US says these countries have committed to forced-labour import prohibitions. Higher Rates Elsewhere: Many partners face 12.5%, including China and Vietnam, raising extra pressure on regional apparel supply chains. Policy Backdrop: The move is designed to be more legally durable after earlier tariff plans were struck down by the US Supreme Court. Labour Reform Boost: In Dhaka, ILO chief Gilbert F Houngbo backed Bangladesh’s labour reform push, including social protection and compliance systems ahead of the LDC transition. Energy Strain: A worsening gas crisis is disrupting cooking, transport and industry, with LNG dependence still a key vulnerability. Diplomacy & Stability: Bangladesh’s president Mohammed Shahabuddin is set to resign amid political uncertainty, while China’s Wang Yi urged ASEAN to resist external interference.

Bangladesh Politics & Stability: President Mohammed Shahabuddin will resign Friday amid rising pressure after Sheikh Hasina’s planned return, a move that could reshape the country’s top leadership just months before her comeback. FDI & Investment Pipeline: BIDA says its structured lead-generation drive has pushed over $400m in FDI into decision and execution from a $1.5b pipeline, with a 15%+ conversion rate. Digital Payments & Cash Costs: Former Bangladesh Bank governor Ahsan H Mansur warns cash management costs Bangladesh Bank about Tk 20,000cr yearly and argues for an integrated instant-payment push to cut costs and boost inclusion. Central Bank Policy: Bangladesh Bank issued a Master Circular allowing Export Development Fund loan repayment tenure extensions up to 270 days (with prior approval), tightening eligibility for exporters and banks. Banking & Corporate Moves: Pubali Bank plans to buy Tejgaon’s “Swiss Tower” site for Tk 800cr for its new corporate HQ; Dhaka Bank opened a DSCC Zone-2 collection booth for holding tax and trade licence fees; DSCC withdrew bank sponsorship requests for its “Hridoye Dhaka” festival after backlash. Markets: Stocks ended the week lower on both bourses, with DSEX down and turnover falling. Trade & Garments: US textile bodies question the Bangladesh-US reciprocal trade textile clause, warning it may not deliver jobs or certainty for sourcing. Energy & Commodities: Oil rose for a fifth day on Middle East supply risks; gold slipped from a two-week peak. Food Safety & Water Security: Govt begins mapping 10.13 lakh food businesses for safer production monitoring; ECNEC cleared a Tk 32,554cr plan for Dhaka’s water security via five reservoirs. Tourism Planning: Govt is drafting an integrated master plan to develop Cox’s Bazar as a tourism hub, including easing coastal development restrictions.

RMG Exports: Bangladesh’s ready-made garment exports dipped 0.63% year-on-year to $19.34bn in H1 2026, with woven up 0.68% to $9.20bn and knitwear down 1.80% to $10.14bn, as industry voices flag the need for faster tech and AI adoption. Policy Push for Garments: PM Tarique Rahman assured BGMEA of full government backing and ordered quick action to remove bottlenecks, especially uninterrupted gas and electricity supply. Banking & Depositors: Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC’s board representative told clients depositors are “true owners” and pledged professional management to restore trust. Forex & Remittances: Bangladesh Bank eased foreign exchange rules for freelancers, while remittance inflows rose 23.5% to about $2.10bn in the first 21 days of July. Industrial Partnership: South Korea’s ambassador visited Samsung’s electronics manufacturing in Narsingdi, urging strict NEIR enforcement and promising deeper industrial cooperation. Energy Supply Risk: Gas supply was hit by technical faults at the LNG terminal, worsening the grid situation. Trade & Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman said “Bangladesh First” will guide external relations after talks with China, Russia and the US on connectivity, trade, investment and energy at ARF in Manila. Regional Shipping: A report notes an LNG carrier transited the Bab el-Mandeb after discharging a Nigerian cargo into Bangladesh, underscoring shifting Middle East shipping risks.

Textile & RMG Support: Prime Minister Tarique Rahman met BTMA leaders as millers pushed for a special refinancing scheme (up to 5% interest) and faster Tk 20,000cr working-capital support, with a high-level committee formed to review issues. Energy Crunch: A technical glitch at the Moheshkhali floating LNG terminal cut gas supply to the national grid by about 450mmcfd (~17%), hitting industries, power plants and CNG stations; authorities say work is underway. Banking & Payments: Trust Bank signed an MoU with Multibrand Workshop for cardholder service discounts; Upay and NRB Bank partnered to expand digital services; bKash rolled out the largest Bangla QR network (800,000+ merchants) to speed cashless payments. Remittances & Forex: Remittance inflow rose 23.5% to $2.10bn in the first 21 days of July, while gross forex reserves climbed to $36.47bn. Capital Markets & Policy: Stocks slipped as late selling erased early gains; BB doubled exporters’ retention quota to 15% and eased foreign transaction rules for freelancers; BSEC and IMF discussed expanding green bonds. Fertilizer & Power Projects: CCGP approved fertilizer imports and a Hatiya solar plant with battery backup; CCEA moved to shorten emergency fertilizer tender periods to keep production steady. Business Climate & Data: Bida launched a nationwide investment database survey to improve investor facilitation and policymaking.

LDC Graduation Watch: ECOSOC has recommended the UN General Assembly decide on Bangladesh and Nepal’s request for a three-year extension of the LDC preparatory period, with a decision due before Nov 24, 2026—key for Bangladesh’s post-LDC readiness. Policy & Planning: ECNEC meeting is underway with PM Tarique Rahman in the chair to review development project proposals. Energy for Exports: PM adviser Mahdi Amin told the BAYLA Future Summit that reliable gas and electricity are top priorities for industry and the $100bn RMG export goal, alongside reforms to cut the cost of doing business. Investment Climate Debate: A commentary questions whether the new Invest Bangladesh Bill—merging BIDA, BEZA and PPPA—will truly improve the investor experience. Banking Regulation: Bangladesh Bank revised the Basel III NSFR reporting framework and issued updated ICMS guidelines for banks. Food Security Pressure: UN report says 38.6% of Bangladeshis can’t afford a healthy diet in 2025, underlining rising nutrition stress. Trade Fair Calendar: EPB set a tentative start date for the 31st Dhaka International Trade Fair on Jan 1, 2027 and approved participation in 50 international fairs in FY27. Energy Market Risks: Oil prices rose on renewed Mideast supply fears; separate reports note South Asia’s LNG costs are climbing due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Road Safety Diplomacy: Bangladesh co-chaired a UN road safety panel, urging stronger institutions and coordinated action to cut traffic deaths.

Bangladesh Bank & Banking Reform: BB issued new Internal Control Management System (ICMS) guidelines for scheduled banks, replacing the 2016 framework, and also revised Basel III NSFR reporting rules to better reflect central bank liquidity treatment. Capital Markets: BSEC drafted easier margin-lending rules, letting investors borrow via brokers using existing shares as collateral, while CSE30 was revised with four firms added and four dropped; stocks rebounded on renewed optimism. Trade & Exports: Bangladesh will take part in 50 international trade fairs across 27 countries in FY27, and the government moved to expand jute exports through diplomacy and an International Jute Expo plan. Remittances & Payments: Remittance inflow rose 23.1% to $2.018bn in the first 20 days of July, and Nagad signed a strategic partnership with NRB Bank to extend services to remote areas. Business Regulation: New Food Safety (Registration and Licensing) rules require registration or licences for food businesses across the supply chain, including street vendors. Public Policy & Society: A special legal panel is set to be formed to tackle deepfakes, disinformation and cyberbullying; dengue cases climbed to 338 in 24 hours.

Capital Markets & Growth Priorities: Bangladesh’s PM says the capital market is a top priority for national transformation, with entrepreneurship and jobs as key goals. Macroeconomic Slowdown: Bangladesh GDP growth slowed to 2.22% in Q3 (Jan–Mar) FY26, down from 4.53% a year earlier, with industry weakening. Remittance Boost, Concentration Risk: Bangladesh Bank data shows $1.943bn remittances in the first 19 days of July (+27.6%); analysts warn dependence on a few source countries makes forex earnings vulnerable. Energy Transition Pressure: Gas pressure is declining, pushing the need for faster renewable energy shift. Insurance Reform: IDRA is prioritising settlement of long-pending claims, using auditor-supervised accounts and first-in-first-out payments. Trade & Logistics: Saudi-backed RSGT inaugurated its Chittagong terminal after a $170m investment, boosting capacity and productivity. Rohingya Repatriation Debate: A new PM-headed committee is set to coordinate repatriation, but observers stress past failures stemmed from lack of credible safety and rights guarantees. RMG Competitiveness Push: Industry leaders urge AI and tech adoption to stay competitive post-LDC. Health Watch: Dengue deaths rose to 37 this year as hundreds were hospitalised.

Industrial Slowdown: Bangladesh’s industrial output contracted 0.28% in Jan-Mar FY26, the first fall in six years, as gas and electricity shortages, weak export demand and high borrowing costs hit factory utilisation. Construction Cooling: The construction sector is losing steam with weaker public spending, slower private investment and costly credit, dragging demand across steel, cement and other linked industries. Fertiliser Supply Shock: The country’s only state DAP plant has stayed shut since June 28 due to phosphoric acid shortages, raising risks for agriculture and increasing import reliance. Market Watch: DSE ended nearly flat as investors waited for clarity on BSEC’s proposed Margin Rules 2025, while insurance stocks stayed under pressure. Capital Market Policy: BSEC invited public feedback on draft margin rules that would ease margin loans even for lower-dividend B-category shares, but experts warn it could spur riskier trading. Tax Compliance Push: DCCI urged NBR to intensify source tax monitoring without harassing compliant firms, calling for automation and fair timelines for non-compliant businesses. Digital Payments: Bangladesh Bank rolled out prizes for a Bangla QR awareness drive as the QR system became mandatory from July 1, aiming to expand secure cashless transactions. Remittance Boost: Remittance inflows rose 27.6% to $1.94bn in the first 19 days of July, supporting forex reserves. ADB Scam Alert: ADB warned the public about fake loan offers using its name and officials’ credentials. Energy & Trade: Oil prices jumped above $91 amid US-Iran tensions; separately, Bangladesh is set to sign the HSIA third terminal deal with a Japanese consortium by late Aug/early Sept.

Bangladesh Bank & Markets: Bangladesh Bank will auction Tk25b treasury bonds Tuesday, while FY26 import settlements rose only 0.09% to $70.4b despite a 7% jump in opening LC orders—signalling cautious demand amid weak business confidence and financial stress. Banking & Regulation: Bangladesh Bank also moved to support finance-company borrowers with special exit and rescheduling policies for bad loans, as BSEC looks to ease margin loan rules but experts warn liquidity risks. Insurance Sector: IDRA’s new chair says settling unpaid insurance claims of about BDT70bn (around $568m) will be her top priority to restore policyholder trust. Trade & Industry: Weekly cotton review points to production up 77% despite textile-sector woes; meanwhile, jute sliver export bans are being pushed to curb incentive misuse. Energy & Costs: With Middle East tensions, energy-price pressure continues; separate reports highlight rising fuel-import bills and the need for energy security. Healthcare & Pharma: A drug-pricing deadlock is stalling new medicine launches, delaying approvals for life-saving therapies. Governance & Risk: ADB warns the public against fraudulent “ADB loan” offers using its name and logo. Aviation: US-Bangla plans expansion to 30 international destinations by 2027 and a second airline launch. Social & Business Climate: Extreme heat is flagged as a growing threat to workers’ incomes and productivity.

Investment & Trade Policy: Parliament has passed the Invest Bangladesh Bill to merge Bida, BEZA and PPPA into a single one-stop investment promotion agency, aiming to cut approval delays and simplify investor access. LDC Graduation Readiness: Commerce Secretary Ataur Rahman Khan says Bangladesh will implement a new five-year trade capacity plan under the WTO’s EIF to tackle post-LDC challenges, non-tariff barriers and investment-climate reforms. Tax & Revenue: NBR has intensified nationwide monitoring of tax deducted at source, with special teams empowered to inspect records and systems and warn of penalties for obstruction. Energy & Inflation Pressure: Bangladesh’s fuel import bill jumped 85% amid Middle East conflict-driven oil price rises, raising forex and cost concerns. Public Finance & Services: Bangladesh Railway reported Tk 221 crore higher revenue in FY26 without a fare hike, though expenditure still outpaced income. Social Protection: A “universal pension scheme” is being rolled out via a digital platform to extend old-age financial security beyond government employees. Urban Resilience & Health: Khulna launched a 9,232-foot drain cleaning drive to reduce waterlogging and disaster risks; dengue cases rose to 473 with one death in 24 hours. Business & Markets: TCB subsidized sales began in Rajshahi for 174,057 families; rice prices in Dhaka and Chattogram climbed on flood damage and import uncertainty. Regional Security: BIMSTEC endorsed maritime law-enforcement interaction principles and HADR guidelines to improve coordination at sea. Corporate/Finance: BRAC Bank processed record $2.97bn in remittances in FY26, ranking third in inflows. Anti-Corruption: ACC took possession of two Gulshan flats of fugitive ex-land minister Saifuzzaman Chowdhury, valued around Tk 18 crore.

Tax Enforcement: NBR has intensified nationwide monitoring of withholding tax compliance, warning businesses that officials can inspect premises, accounts and even digital records under Section 147 of the Income Tax Act. FDI & Industry: Chinese textile firm Huarun Tex will invest $30m in BEPZA’s Mirsharai EZ, targeting yarn and grey fabric output and about 580 jobs. RMG Outlook: LGRD and Cooperatives Minister Mirza Fakhrul said Bangladesh’s economy can recover with garments as a key partner, stressing skills and innovation. Capital Markets: BSEC Chairman Masud Khan said the regulator is operating without political pressure and wants investor confidence restored by listing strong companies and improving transparency. Halal Exports: BCI pushed the idea of a “Halal Economy” frontier, calling for a single halal authority and internationally recognized certification. Transport Modernisation: Govt plans to bring around 1,400 electric buses through multiple procurement packages and charging infrastructure. Business & Compliance Tech: BCCCI seminar highlighted responsible AI and blockchain adoption for trade, banking and manufacturing competitiveness. Education Costs: Bangladesh Bank data shows spending on overseas education more than doubled in five years, reaching $881.7m (Tk 109.33bn) in FY25-26. Sustainability Award: Evitex Dress Shirt Ltd won “Most Sustainable Garments Factory of the Year” at SDG Brand Champion Awards 2026.

Energy & Markets: Oil prices jumped more than 4% to around $88 a barrel as US-Iran tensions and risks to Gulf shipping raised fears for energy security. Capital Market Reform: BSEC chairman Masud Khan said the regulator is now operating without political pressure and wants investor confidence through listing fundamentally strong firms, including a plan to resume direct listing for big firms and MNCs. Halal Export Push: BCI speakers urged a “Halal Economy” push for export diversification, but businesses complained halal certification is costly, slow and sometimes lacks internationally accepted recognition—calling for a single, free, internationally credible authority. Sustainability in Business: Bangladesh Brand Forum’s Sustainability Summit 2026 stressed sustainability as core strategy for competitiveness, while banks and firms highlighted responsible finance and impact. Banking & Payments: Citizens Bank will collect Desco electricity bills nationwide; Bank Asia reported record Tk 6,800cr deposit growth in H1 2026; and industry voices reiterated the push for a cashless ecosystem for inclusion and governance. Power Sector Roadmap: Government plans mandatory industrial energy audits, renewables incentives and governance reforms to cut fuel imports and electricity costs. Trade/Industry: Ha-Meem Group and Robonauts will accelerate Industry 4.0 in RMG via robotics, AI and smart manufacturing training. Policy for Expatriates: Probashi Card pilot is set to launch next month with a dual-currency debit card offering banking, travel and public-service benefits.

BIMSTEC Security: Myanmar’s National Security Advisor U Tin Aung San led talks in New Delhi at the 5th BIMSTEC National Security Leaders’ Meeting, focusing on counterterrorism, transnational crime, maritime and cyber security, plus border and illegal migration cooperation with Bangladesh and other members. LDC Graduation: Bangladesh’s Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir pushed for a three-year extension to the LDC graduation preparatory period, citing transition costs, energy and supply-chain shocks; the EU and G77/China reaffirmed support for a smooth, irreversible graduation. Debt & SDGs: Finance Adviser Dr Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir urged the UN to set up a debt restructuring/relief mechanism so developing countries can keep investing in children, women and social protection while staying on SDG track. RMG Pressure: Garment exporters asked for emergency support after Chattogram Port flooding disrupted shipments, warning logistics delays could worsen an already weakening export outlook. Port Safety & Trade Tech: Police arrested a youth for allegedly hacking NBR customs systems to aid liquor and cigarette smuggling via Chattogram Port; meanwhile, DNCC unveiled a Tk 4,527cr FY27 budget with heavy focus on roads and traffic, while allocating only Tk 45cr for waterlogging mitigation.

RMG Outlook: Local Government Minister Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said Bangladesh’s ready-made garment sector is now the country’s biggest economic pillar and can drive future growth, while warning that past wealth smuggling hurt the economy and reconstruction is underway. Banking & Trade Facilitation: Bangladesh Bank unveiled a framework to ease import trade in free trade zones (FTZs), setting rules for authorised dealers and offshore banking units and clarifying how consignment imports are treated for risk and financing. Export Performance: BEPZA reported FY26 exports from its zones at $8.41bn (up 2.2%), contributing 17.51% of national exports, alongside new lease proposals and job creation. Food Safety: BFSA ordered the withdrawal of three packaged food products for excess preservatives, advising consumers not to buy or consume them. Agri-Business: Gazipur jackfruit farmers and traders are upbeat after a government plan to export jackfruit to China, backed by a bilateral MoU and value-added processing push. Labour & Migration: Bangladesh and IOM stressed safe, orderly migration to expand overseas jobs for women, including exploring new labour markets and improving skills alignment. Urban Resilience: Bangladesh reaffirmed its commitment at the UN to inclusive, affordable, climate-resilient urban development, linking planned urbanisation to growth and resilience. Energy Risk Watch: IEA warned global energy security is at risk if the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted, with potential knock-on effects for Asia. Cyber Security: Two British hackers, including a Bangladeshi-origin teen, were jailed for a TfL cyberattack that cost nearly £29m to repair.

Bangladesh Economy & Finance: The IMF projects Bangladesh growth at 3.5% for FY27, warning it could slip below 3% unless decisive reforms move fast, as fiscal, banking and external pressures persist. Central Banking & Trade: Bangladesh Bank has issued a new framework for import transactions into Free Trade Zones, setting rules for who can import, how goods are treated for bank exposure, and how standard import formalities apply when goods are sold inside Bangladesh. Energy Security: The IEA chief warned global energy security is at risk if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz don’t resume at higher levels soon—an issue that can hit Bangladesh via energy costs and supply disruptions. EU & LDC Transition: The EU and G77 reaffirmed support for Bangladesh’s LDC graduation, with Bangladesh seeking a three-year extension of the preparatory period amid transition and reform needs. Regional Security: BIMSTEC national security chiefs, including Bangladesh, vowed joint action against terrorism and organised crime and endorsed maritime law enforcement coordination principles. Business & Supply Chains: Mokam Fish expanded into the Muhuri aquaculture cluster in Feni to improve fish sourcing and distribution across Chattogram region. Urban Resilience: Bangladesh reiterated its push for climate-resilient, inclusive cities at the UN, stressing affordable housing, local governance and digital land management. Public Health: Dengue cases keep rising, with 306 new infections and at least two deaths reported in 24 hours. Disaster Impact: Catastrophic monsoon floods and landslides have killed at least 54 people, affecting over a million people across multiple districts.